Covid-19: in France, the epidemic continues to progress but at a slower pace
The Omicron variant may well be the subject of all the attention, but for the moment it is Delta which is continuing its race in France. The incidence rate (number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants) has exceeded the level of the peaks of the third and fourth waves, according to the epidemiological bulletin published Friday by Public Health France, which covers the week from November 29 to December 5. . On the rise, this indicator of the vigor of the epidemic peaks at 661 among 30-39 year olds and approaches 1030 among 6-10 year olds. “A student in a class of 25 children has about a one in five chance of being infected with the virus on the day, which is a high risk”, underlines P r Philippe Amouyel, epidemiologist and professor of public health at the University Hospital of Lille.
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Just over 45,000 new positive cases are reported daily. Recourse to care for suspected Covid is also on the rise in all age groups. At the same time, even if it is about two weeks apart, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions are still increasing – without reaching the levels of previous waves, thanks to vaccination. As of December 9, more than 13,000 patients were hospitalized, including 2,461 in critical care.
Down in Eastern Europe
If the epidemic is at a very high level, its progression is slower than in the previous days. “We were at + 60% of cases in one week, then + 40%, now it is between + 25% and + 30%”, thus indicated Olivier Véran Thursday on France 2. In addition, the effective reproduction rate of the virus, which reflects the number of people infected on average by an infected person, is decreasing. This suggests “a slight slowdown in viral circulation”, according to Public Health France. The team of Antoine Flahault, professor of public health at the University of Geneva, estimates this reproduction rate at 1.17. When it is permanently below 1, the epidemic will decrease. According to the scientist, the peak of the contamination curve “could be reached towards the end of next week”. But “it is not yet known whether this will be a maximum point followed by a descent of the curve or the start of a plateau, associated with a constant but high number of new daily cases”.
The fifth wave is already in decline in Europe in many countries, especially in the East, the region affected first. In Germany, where the peak was reached at the end of November, contamination is decreasing. “The comparison is difficult, notes however Philippe Amouyel, because the situations are very different. The Germans had been less affected by the first wave and were less vaccinated than the French. Then they took drastic measures.”
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Whatever the evolution of the epidemic in France, the situation will continue to deteriorate in the hospital. "Even if the epidemic were in decline today, the peak of the occupation of critical care would not arrive before around New Year's Eve", insists Mircea Sofonea, epidemiologist in Montpellier. In the eyes of Antoine Flahault, the challenge for the next few weeks will be to stem the circulation of the virus more effectively than last winter. According to him, “to be satisfied in January with a high plateau would place the country in a situation of very great vulnerability vis-à-vis the uncertain outcome of this pandemic”.
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