Arnaud Benedetti: "for five years, no political offer has been able to present itself as a credible alternative to Emmanuel Macron"
Was there a break in political life in the summer of 2021?
"I am not sure that there is a political instrumentalization of the anti-sanitary pass movement"
"There is no feeling that there has been a cut for a simple reason: the law on the health pass provoked protest movements which gave the feeling that the political scene was extremely lively this summer.
The protest that developed from July 12, 2021 is a protest that takes place outside political walls. And this constitutes a new deal, or at least a deal similar to what we experienced with the Yellow Vests in the fall of 2018.
Apart from a few fairly peripheral political offers, which are those of Florian Philippot and Nicolas Dupont-Aignant, there are very few official political expressions that support this movement. I am not sure that there is a political instrumentalization of this movement. This creates a manifest uncertainty on the whole political scene. Abstention in the last elections says a lot about the relationship we have with the political offer and the classic political scene", replied Arnaud Benedetti.
Emmanuel Macron, can he capitalize on this health crisis?
"This health crisis has given rise to multiple and varied dysfunctions. He is capitalizing above all on the divisions and fractures of this society. Considering that the political bloc is more mobilized and more organized, which will allow it, even with a modest score in the first round of the presidential elections, to be able to qualify for the second round and find itself faced with a political offer that it considers unsuitable to win. He also capitalizes on a political field that has not been able to rebuild itself in five years. He believes that for five years, no political offer has been able to present itself as a credible alternative. In addition, Emmanuel Macron is the most contested President of the Republic, he has experienced the most street movements during a five-year term. In addition, the health crisis acts like a black hole. The urgency has become such that the health crisis absorbs all the other subjects", analyzes Arnaud Benedetti.
Can we already predict the outcome of the 2022 presidential election? "Today, any projection would be imprudent. We know that a presidential election is played out in the last month, the crystallization of public opinion is done in the home stretch. The history of presidential elections in recent years should encourage us to be very careful because all the candidates who were given potential winners (Édouard Balladur in 1994, Lionel Jospin in 2000, Ségolène Royal in 2007) we were swept away by the results of the ballot boxes.
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