Fishing licenses: "We are witnessing an unprecedented rise in tension in Franco-British relations"

Aurélien Antoine is a university professor, director of the Brexit Observatory and author of Le Brexit: An English History published by Dalloz.

FIGAROVOX. - Why did France take retaliatory measures against Great Britain? Are they legit?

Aurélien ANTOINE. - First of all, there is the case of the two British fishing vessels fined in the Bay of Seine. According to what Annick Girardin, Minister of the Sea, said on France Inter, the ships were not in order. This verbalization therefore seems completely legitimate.

On the other hand, we can be more cautious about the measures announced by the government. France invokes a direct violation of the Brexit agreements, in particular the trade and cooperation agreement. The British would not have granted French fishermen all the licenses provided for in the agreement. However, according to this same agreement, in the event of non-compliance, sanction mechanisms are provided for and must be applied by the European Union in order to avoid unilateral decisions by a Member State.

In this story, there is certainly ill will on the part of the British. However, in the retaliatory measures announced by the government, there is also a violation of the agreement if France intends to rely on it to attack the British, because these measures must be validated by the EU, following a rather complex procedure which leaves no room for unilateralism on the part of the Member States.

Are we sure that the fishing licenses provided for by the Brexit agreements have not yet been issued? And if so, are the British doing it deliberately?

It should first be noted that the agreement does not specify anything on the volume of licenses to be granted. As I speak to you, I cannot tell you exactly how many license applications are outstanding. This would require being particularly aware of what is determined in each administration. And again... if we look at the various statements made by members of the French government on the number of licenses still pending, the figures vary. The declarations of Gabriel Attal and Annick Girardin are not completely equivalent figures, we navigate between 150 and 200 licenses granted.

The UK government says it has granted 98% of the planned licenses for the whole of the EU. The French government speaks rather of 90%. We can therefore easily consider that the real figure is at least at this 90% threshold, which, less than a year after obtaining a trade agreement, is not so scandalous. We must not forget that the trade and cooperation agreement is a starting point. There are no particularly precise criteria for determining the granting of fishing licenses.

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On the other hand, there may be British ill will - particularly over access to Guernsey and Jersey waters - in an effort to arouse French susceptibility. This seems credible in view of the political context and the Franco-British relations which are rising in tension. Still, in terms of licenses granted, the British have reached a fairly large volume.

Several countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland or Sweden also fish in British waters. Are they facing the same problem? Why don't they support France?

Regarding the support that France could receive, a few weeks ago a joint declaration was nevertheless signed by these countries to make an effort on the granting of licenses. But it is a minimum support and Brussels excludes to initiate the discussion procedures provided for by the trade and cooperation agreement.

France is therefore still somewhat alone. To understand why it remains the most exposed to the problem of licensing, we must return to historical elements on the very particular situation of the Channel Islands which are in fact closer to France than to England. Mrs. Girardin said it very well on France Inter: hardly have they left the port than the Norman ships are practically in the territorial waters of certain Channel Islands.

Moreover, we must also take a step back: there have always been tensions in this area, even when the United Kingdom was in the European Union.

Have Franco-British relations reached a point of tension not seen in recent years?

I believe that it is all the same a political and symbolic micro-problem. There would be a lot more to say on the question of the Northern Irish protocol or on the migration question, which are two much more difficult subjects raised by Brexit. I say this even though I have great respect for fishermen and I understand the anxiety that this situation can cause.

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More generally, it is nevertheless very clear that we have reached a degree of tension quite close to that which we experienced at the start of the United Kingdom's accession to European construction with its famous "rebate". We may even be a cut above.

Can we think that there is a desire to make the British pay for Brexit, and, at the same time, to dissuade any attempt to leave another Member State?

Yes, of course, this state of mind exists. Some Member States, such as France, have a special position vis-à-vis the United Kingdom and like to give the impression that they still have great importance. Remember at the end of 2019 during the successive postponements of Brexit, the position of the Member States often boiled down to the opposition good cop - bad cop. Germany assumed the role of the first and France the second. This is obviously the political game and all of this is more, as far as fishing is concerned, about political posturing. On this point, I agree with certain British analysts who recall the importance of the presidential election in France in a few months.